|
This section of the website features observations about the Thoroughbred racing and breeding industry written by Thoroughbred Information Agency (TIA) and www.thoroughbredinfo.com President Lisa Groothedde and Vice President Rudi Groothedde.
Blog entries dated prior to November 1, 2008 were written by TIA founder and former owner Don Engel, who established this website in 1997.
Do you have an opinion to share about this blog, or any other racing-related topic? We want to hear from you! Post your comments on our Facebook page, or join the discussion with us on Twitter.
|
OCTOBER 4, 2008
Before we leave our discussion of Tuesday's
Barretts/CTBA yearling sale, it should be noted that a comparison of the
16.3-percent decline in average with the 14.8-percent drop at Keeneland
fails to take into account an important factor.
The Keeneland sale ended before the Great
Financial Meltdown; the Barretts sale was held right in the middle of it.
The other sale held this week, by Fasig-Tipton
in Maryland, suffered a decline of 26.8 percent. It's more realistic to
compare the Barretts result with that rather than with the Keeneland sale.
When you take that into consideration, the
Barretts sale doesn't look quite as bad. Nothing will make it a good sale;
it just may not have been quite as bad as it could have been.
Just the same, it wasn't nearly as good as
California breeders needed. Not nearly. The problem remains, and it still
pleads for a solution.
|
|
OCTOBER 3, 2008
It may appear that the leadership in the California
freshman sire race has been unchanged for months, with Momentum first,
Cat Dreams second, and Marino Marini third, because that's the way it stood
at the end of September. And August. And July. And June.
May was the last month that ended with the
leadership different.
But things aren't always as they appear, because
in late September Popular crept into third place ahead of Marino Marini.
But Marino Marini caught up and restored order by the end of the month.
With the order the same, the leader in our
California Freshman Sire Contest remains the same, too. Just one person
picked those three horses in that order. Only four of the other 19 contestants
had Momentum on top, but none had Cat Dreams second. Just one of the four
named the top three but placed Marino Marini second and Cat Dreams third.
With $131,880 in earnings at the end of September,
Momentum had a substantial lead of $48,351 over Cat Dreams at $83,529.
Marino Marini, at $58,685, was barely ahead of Popular, at $54,654.
With three months remaining and plenty of
2-year-old stakes races on the schedule, the leader board has plenty of
time and opportunity to get scrambled before year's end.
That $500 first prize is still a long way
from having been earned by our long-time leader. Writing that check will
be the final act of my Thoroughbred career.
|
|
OCTOBER 2, 2008
The bad news from Tuesday's yearling sale at
Barretts was that it followed the other sales around the country, down.
The good news was that it was down but not
disastrous, as many of us had feared.
Nevertheless, the average price of $16,689
was 16.3 percent lower than that of a year ago, and it was 34.2 percent
lower than that of two years ago.
An average of $16,689 for the flagship sale
of the best yearlings that California breeders have to offer to buyers--and
declining year after year--is both depressing and alarming.
Are breeders to grit their teeth, keep their
upper lips stiff, and vow to ride out the storm, doing nothing to change
course? Or are they going to face the fact that their present course can
lead nowhere but steadily downward with no hope of recovery--and do something.
If you think that projection is unrealistic,
too pessimistic, please tell me why you believe that it's wrong and what
will make things better? Here's the e-mail address: tbinfo@aol.com.
When those e-mails arrive, I'll post them
on our Voices From Cyberspace page and we'll see
what ideas emerge. After everybody's had a chance to offer ideas, suggestions,
plans, and insights, maybe a plan for recovery will have begun to take
shape.
If you contribute to the round-table discussion,
make sure that you're contributing something that will help make things
better, not just agreeing that things sure are bad.
After everybody has had a chance to speak,
we'll see whether there are any ideas that can help turn things around.
I have an idea of my own, but maybe yours will be better.
|
|
SEPTEMBER 29, 2008
The most important sale of the year for California
breeders will be held tomorrow at Barretts. It's what is clumsily named
California's Fall Selected Yearling Sale, and anybody who cares about the
health of the state's breeding industry has to be holding his/her breath,
if not praying--or both.
The sale is the last best hope for the establishment
of a solid marketplace for the state's breeders of better horses, a place
where a yearling can bring a fair, honest price.
The sale was created in 2005 to replace the
CTBA's Del Mar sale and Barretts's October preferred sale. It got off to
a satisfactory launch with an average of $25,311 and held steady in its
second year with an almost identical average of $25,362. But last year
the average veered sharply downward to $19,938, 21.3 percent below the
2006 average.
That was in a financial environment nowhere
near as frightening as the one we're in right now, an environment that
sent the average at the important Keeneland fall sale earlier this month
down 14.8 percent.
Historically, the California market does not
follow Keeneland's in lockstep. A strong Keeneland sale is not a reliable
indicator of a strong California sale. Unfortunately, a poor Keeneland
sale almost always is followed by a poor California sale.
If that holds true this year as well and tomorrow's
sale continues the decline that began last October, the California breeding
industry will be dealt a blow from which it may never recover.
The 234 yearlings in the catalog are the best
that the state's breeders have to offer. They are the ones bearing the
weight of the biggest stud fees, the ones at greatest risk of losing discouraging
amounts of money for the breeders that the state needs the most. They're
the ones who support the few good stallions on whom the industry's hopes
of producing quality runners depend.
The Santa Rosa sale last month showed clearly
that breeders who produce lower-quality horses would be wise to get out
of the business.
If the producers of the state's best receive
the same message, the industry will be badly wounded--if not mortally,
at least badly maimed.
Putting it simply--bluntly--things look bad,
and it's scary.
|
|
SEPTEMBER 25, 2008
It is with a strong sense of sadness mixed
with an equally strong feeling of relief that I am giving up The Thoroughbred
Showcase of the West, effective November 1, completing my phased move into
retirement
In recent years, we--my wife Jean and I--had
carved our business down to just The T I A Newsletter and The Thoroughbred
Showcase of the West. Last year we ended the newsletter's run of 30-plus
years. That left the Showcase.
Now it's about time for that last step into
complete retirement.
Through the end of October, everything will
continue as before in every way. After that, the Showcase will continue
under new management. The whole operation has been purchased by Lisa Groothedde
of San Dimas, who'll carry on in what I feel certain will be a competent
and professional manner..
Lisa has provided me with a resume, which
you'll see below. I'm impressed. It appears to me that she may be better-qualified
than I am, which is good news. As a bonus, I'm told that she is a nice
person.
The reason for all this is that I recently
had my 83rd birthday (Jean beat me there by five months). We just looked
at each other one night and asked how long we expected to keep working,
and we decided now was about the right time to stop. Our remaining time
is obviously limited (well, everybody's is, but ours is almost certainly
more limited than yours), and we decided not to spend any more of it working.
The Showcase has been interesting: we've been
blessed to be able to work with compatible and companiable clients, and
we've had good feedback and participation from visitors to this website,
but its time for us to move on.
Now here's Lisa's resume:
A graduate of Texas A & M
University, Lisa Groothedde is a lifelong equestrienne and national award-winning
journalist for the Thoroughbred racing industry. During her tenure as editor
of The Texas Thoroughbred magazine earlier this decade, this official publication
of the Texas Thoroughbred Association (TTA) was honored by American Horse
Publications as the country's Best State/Regional Publication and Best
Association Magazine, in addition to receiving numerous other awards for
writing and design achievements. While working for TTA, Lisa also created
and maintained the association's official website, www.texasthoroughbred.com.
Today, Lisa is a West Coast
correspondent for Thoroughbred Times and a regular contributor to California
Thoroughbred magazine. As a member of the National Turf Writers Association,
she is also an Eclipse Award voter.
Lisa's husband, Rudi,
has served as the managing editor of California Thoroughbred since 2000.
Through their Jacaranda Stable, they have bought and sold a number of breeding
prospects on the commercial market, including a full brother to the leading
sire Songandaprayer.
I think we'll be leaving you in good hands.
However, I'll still be with you until the
end of October, and that will be the end of my 49 years in the Thoroughbred
business in which I've been a breeder, owner, sale agent (buying and selling,
both), consultant, advertising creator, appraiser, expert witness, website
creator and manager, and journalist.
Enough is enough, and in a little more than
a month it will be time for rest and relaxation, tennis, travel, reading,
even greater enjoyment of what is now a wonderful 39-year marriage, and
no stress. No stress!
So this is goodbye. Only not quite yet.
|
|
SEPTEMBER 15, 2008
Evidently I put my money on a winner (see September
14 entry below). Here's the
latest on Big Brown's future.
|
|
SEPTEMBER 14, 2008
Just about everybody in the Thoroughbred world
agrees that horse racing is badly hurt by the early retirement of many
of its superstars. And just about everybody in the world of capitalism
agrees that making money is a very good thing.
Those two goals tend to be irreconcilable,
and it appears that we may see that competition play out soon on center
stage as the future of superstar Big Brown is determined. Click
here to find out about this latest drama.
Stars are the life blood of any form of entertainment,
whether sports or anything else, but racing may be the only one in which
its most popular performers are routinely taken away at the peak of their
careers.
Big Brown's value in the stud may be as high
now as it will ever be. Unless he is successful as a sire--and most stallions
aren't--his value will eventually diminish. On the other hand, if he is
successful, the sky could be the limit.
Since keeping him on the track past his 3-year-old
season would be a gamble, the financially conservative move is to cash
in before the shine wears off his stardom, which it will, if his racing
performance in the future doesn't match that of his past.
If making money is more important, it's a
no-brainer. If the good of the sport is more important, that's a no-brainer,
too.
In this tussle, my money is on money. Too
bad about the sport.
|
|
SEPTEMBER 10, 2008
California breeders are producing too many
horses. The CTBA is doing nothing to reduce those numbers and is doing
nothing to help fund the retirement of those that nobody wants.
The answer is for the CTBA to add a retirement
surcharge to the California-bred registration fee. And make it big enough
to achieve both goals, raising retirement money and reducing the number
of horses breeders produce. A double play.
How about $250 extra to register a horse as
a Cal-bred in order to qualify for breeder awards? That would raise a significant
amount of money and drive many low-level breeders out of production.
Why not?
|
|
SEPTEMBER 6, 2008
Nobody thought there would be much demand for
yearlings at the bottom of the market, but I doubt that many people thought
it would be this bad.
In the Northern California yearling sale last
week, 45 of the 187 horses that entered the ring left without reaching
the upset price of $1,000. They didn't get a single bid to match the minimum
price that the sale conditions required. Another 54 couldn't draw a bid
above $2,000.
Things were bad, too, at this week's Washington
summer sale, where 34 of the 199 horses that entered the ring left marked
"No bid," having failed to reach the upset price of $2,000.
Not only was the average down 25.8 percent
and the median down 45.8 percent from 2007, the buyback number was 42.7
percent (that included the no-bids), the highest in the sale's history.
The average price of $11,224 was 37.5 percent
lower than the $17,966 average recorded just four years ago, in 2005.
I don't know what the conversations were in
Washington, but only a few months ago CTBA president Leigh Ann Howard and
general manager Doug Burge both were talking about figuring out what was
the proper number of foals that California breeders should produce.
The implication was that there was something
that the CTBA could do to adjust that number. They both said that breeders
needed to produce better foals.
But now, just a few months later, it appears
that the situation is self-adjusting, beyond the control of any administrative
action, by the CTBA or anybody else.
California's foal crop of 2006 will be about
3,300, and that number is expected to slip below 3,000 when all the 2007
foal registrations are recorded, down from a 2005 total of 3,655. Judging
from the devastation at the bottom of the market, it's reasonable to infer
that most of the breeders dropping out are those producing these unwanted
horses. Anything close to 3,000 probably won't be the bottom, when the
shakeout is completed.
Things are at least as bad in Washington.
In 1988, the foal crop in that state was 1,226. The 2005 number will be
about 720, and the early projection is for a 2007 crop below 600.
The market exerts its inexorable force. Capitalism
at work.
I am puzzled by the cries of alarm that you
hear from a number of sources, people worried that the shrinking foal crops
will cause field sizes to shrink as well. If that linkage exists, the way
to increase the size of fields is for breeders to produce more foals.
There's a flaw in that logic somewhere, since
it's evident that there are plenty of foals available to fill those fields,
if somebody would just step up and pay their training expenses. The problem
is that people who want to race horses don't think those bottom-level yearlings
are good enough to win purses.
I don't know how this will play out in other
states, but the California incentive program annually pours millions of
dollars into purses for races restricted to California-breds. Those races
may fill with bad horses, but I can't believe somebody won't enter horses
in them. And they can't enter Kentucky-breds.
We can fret and worry and plot and scheme,
and things will take their course, no matter what anybody does.
In the end, those most hurt by the shrinkage
will be stallion owners, sales companies, farm owners, farm workers, feed
growers, farm veterinarians and farriers, vanning companies, and all those
others who provide services for horses that won't be there any longer.
They'll just be collateral damage.
|
|
SEPTEMBER 3, 2008
Another month has passed, and the leaders in
the California 2008 freshman sire race are just the same as they were at
the beginning of August--Momentum first, Cat Dreams second, and Marino
Marini third.
And that means that the one contestant in
our California Freshman Sire Contest who had them right last month, still
has them right and is on track to win the prize of $500.
Four other entries had the top three but not
in the right order, though two of them put Momentum on top. Two others
picked Momentum but had the wrong horses underneath.
Right now, Momentum has a $102,080-to-$76,381
lead over Cat Dreams with Marino Marini at $55,785. Cat Dreams has four
winners to three for Momentum. The only other California sire with more
than one winner is Spinelessjellyfish, with two. He's in sixth place with
earnings of only $15,055. Popular ($39,600) and Slew's Prince ($16,364)
are fourth and fifth.
There's still plenty of 2-year-old racing
on the schedule, and the present leaders' positions are far from secure.
One good stakes win could scramble the standings.
But for now, that one holder of the winning
ticket can hope that things don't change at all. I know she does.
|
|
AUGUST 31, 2008
The 2008 Del Mar meeting is nearing its end,
and if you've wondered what happened to racing coverage by the Los Angeles
Times, you must have missed a brief item run in the sports section
early in the meeting. Here's the explanation:
Because of ongoing reductions to The Times Sports staff
and space for news in the Sports section, the handicap charts and results
from Del Mar will not be included in the daily sports report. There will
be coverage of major events during the seven-week meeting. In addition,
other weekly features that have been eliminated are the Gearing Up package
on motor racing, Teeing Off on golf and Corner Kicks on soccer.
That explanation may not be dishonest,
but it is certainly disingenuous. They explain that they're cutting coverage
of other weekly features, too, so it isn't just racing that's getting the
axe. But the "other weekly features" that they list aren't comparable to
racing coverage, because racing coverage is--or was--daily, not weekly.
That's not honest.
Aside from the wish to save space and staff
time, it's likely that there are two reasons for the cutback: (a) anyone
who cares is likely to be getting that information from other sources these
days, and (b) in 2008 nobody much cares about horse racing.
I can fault the Times for the wormy
way that it tried to excuse the cutback, but I can't fault what I believe
were their reasons, or at least their reason. There may be only one. They
may not even know or care enough to consider (a), but they surely know
about (b).
And so do we.
|
|
AUGUST 28, 2008
I couldn't write a definition of a Bad Thoroughbred
Sale, but, like pornography, you know it when you see it, and I saw it
Tuesday in Santa Rosa.
If you haven't heard about that sale, click
here and find out.
I've already heard the question asked, "How
long will the CTBA keep holding these Northern California sales?" But I
think that's not the right question. The right question is, "How
long will breeders keep sending their horses to a sale where there's a
50-percent chance that they won't get a bid above $2,000 and a 25-percent
chance that they won't get a bid at all?"
It can't be habit-forming to pay for preparing
a horse for sale, pay for shipping to the sale, pay an entry fee and a
minimum commission, pay for care at the sale--and get a price that will
probably be less than the sale expenses, and maybe no bid at all.
I guess the CTBA will keep putting on the
sale as long as they get enough entries to meet their expenses, and if
people want to spend their money that way, the CTBA will give them a place
to do it, explaining that they're just responding to the wishes of their
members.
The responsible answer for the CTBA would
be to tell breeders to sell their better horses in Southern California
and take the others to the local livestock auctions.
More of the horses in these CTBA sales probably
would get sold if the $1,000 minimum bid were removed, but the purpose
of the $1,000 upset price is to make horses too expensive for the killers
to buy, and at low enough prices they could be headed to the Mexican slaughterhouses,
going first to Arizona to circumvent the California law against shipping
horses for slaughter.
Eventually, many breeders will be driven to
allow the killers to have their horses or to euthanize them themselves.
But it's a rare breeder who can bring himself to such infanticide.
So the only rational course of action is for
them to quit breeding that quality of horse. The problem with that is that
it isn't always easy to know when you're breeding a horse that's one of
those better ones.
After checking out all their alternatives,
many breeders will find that their only rational action is to quit breeding
altogether.
But any rational person has quit breeding
already, so we're dealing with the other kind.
|
|
AUGUST 26, 2008
Here's why I'm worried about today's Northern
California yearling sale. Look at these quotes about the Ocala yearling
sale that just ended, from a story by Deirdre B. Biles in The Blood-Horse:
Lynne M. Boutte, consignor: "It's a
little challenging; there is no bottom. I have a lot of blue collar horses,
and I need the blue collar people, but a not a lot of them are here. I
sold a nice little colt this morning for $1,500, I thought sure I was going
to get $8,000 to $10,000, but I've got no reserves on 90% of the horses
I have. It's tough."
Brent Fernung, Journeyman Bloodstock: "It's
been a tough sale. It looks to me like there is a general turndown in the
medium-priced horse market, and I don't think the weather has helped us
any either.
"You see fuel prices going up, and the economy
is in a general malaise. People who buy these kinds of horses are
more affected by that than the guys who buy a $500,000 horse. Fuel
prices won't bother a fellow who will buy a $1-million horse, but they
will a guy who buys a $40,000 or $50,000 horse. . . . There are a lot of
horses that just can't find a new home right now."
Richard Kent, Kaizen Sales: "At least
it's better than having a root canal, but not much. It is what it is. They
(the buyers) very picky on what they want, and if you lead a horse up that
they want, there's a fair price for it. Otherwise, there's no value for
it, nothing."
All these things apply to the Northern California
sale, in spades. I hope it will be different today (and at later West Coast
sales), but I fear the worst. The Ocala sale has always been a much stronger
sale than any we have out here, and if it's in that kind of shape . . .
|
|
AUGUST 24, 2008
I noted in the news a few days ago that a 2-year-old
filly had given birth to a foal in her stall at Louisiana Downs, to the
consternation of everyone connected with her, since nobody knew that she'd
been bred.
As often happens if you've had a few experiences,
that triggered a memory.
Years ago, when I was trying to build up my
broodmare band by any means necessary, I spotted a filly with both good
pedigree and good earnings running for a tempting claiming price at Hialeah
Park.
I got on the telephone, tracked down the owner,
and arranged a purchase, pending a veterinary examination for breeding
soundness. I found a vet with a decent reputation and gave him the job.
The next day he called and said that the mare,
whose name was Keep Quiet, had a calcified cervix and could never have
a foal. I thanked him and told him where to mail the bill, which he sent,
along with a certificate stating the reasons that she was turned down.
I forgot about it until, about nine months
later, I read in the Daily Racing Form that a mare named Keep Quiet
had foaled in her stall at Oaklawn Park. Nobody knew how that had happened,
but there definitely was a foal, standing and nursing. She had to have
been pregnant when he examined her.
I thought that was pretty amusing, so I dug
out that vet certificate and mailed a copy of it, along with a copy of
the Racing Form story, to that veterinarian.
He never responded. Some people just have
no sense of humor.
|
|
AUGUST 22, 2008
When times get tough, the tough run away.
The tough ones are the survivors, and when
the economy turns bad, they cut back on unnecessary expenses.
Very high up on a list of unnecessary expenses
is surely the purchase of young racing prospects. Like yearlings.
Predictably, that's happening right now at
the big Ocala Breeders' Sales yearling sale in Florida, where the lower
end of the market is nearing collapse.
This quote from The Blood-Horse pretty
much sums it up:
Basically, we're seeing the results
of the overproduction of mediocre stock," said Florida pinhooker Eddie
Woods. "Here it is. This is what the whole thing has evolved into. There
are too many mares (in production); it's a bad economy; and, boom, it gets
ugly.
Small business owners probably make up the
core of buyers of yearlings of lesser pedigree, and small business owners
are the first to suffer in a recession. When they feel that financial squeeze,
they quit buying yearlings.
I'm not writing this just as an observation
on the yearling market in general; I'm writing it because the CTBA's Northern
California yearling sale next Tuesday in Santa Rosa is squarely in the
path of that economic tsunami.
Every year since it was inaugurated in 2004,
the sale has seen many horses leave the ring without a bid and many more
either sold or bought back at cruelly low prices. I can't see how that
situation can get anything but worse next week.
Wise consignors will make whatever plans they
can to reduce their suffering. (Unfortunately, I can't think what that
would be, other than to cut the reserve to the bone or expect to still
own the horse after the sale.)
I'm really writing this in the hope that someone
wanting to own a nice saddle horse for very little money will read this
and get out there to the Sonoma County Fairgrounds Tuesday and make a delightful
acquisition.
Some horses always sell well at this sale,
and the ones with quality will still be attractive to buyers with money.
I'm not talking about them; I'm talking about all those others.
The upset price at the sale is $1,000, which
means that the auctioneer won't accept a bid lower than that. Sometimes,
when a sale is really terrible, I've seen auctioneers waive that rule and
just take any bid they can get.
That probably won't happen Tuesday, but if
you want that nice horse cheap, take note of which horses leave the ring
without a bid and get back to the stable area and buy a horse at a shamefully
low price from a seller who'll be pleased to help you do it.
Some consignors, if they're thinking clearly,
will even be willing to give horses away rather than go home with horses
they don't want to own.
|
|
AUGUST 21, 2008
The dismantling of historic Bay Meadows is
about to begin, and it's a sad thought.
But I guess there's a consolation prize for
someone who cares enough--and I suspect that lots of people do.
The Great American Group has announced a public
auction of bits and pieces--some large, some small--of Bay Meadows to be
held this weekend, Saturday and Sunday, August 23 and 24.
The GAG is an auction/liquidation business,
a kind of commercial vulture that performs the same service that those
ugly birds perform--stripping the last meat from the bones of a dead creature.
The company's initials seem somehow appropriate.
According to the GAG announcement, the offerings
will include "signage and graphics, concessions and food service, facility
equipment, stadium memorabilia, souvenirs, audio/video equipment, photographs,
tack and riding equipment, and more."
The auction will continue next Monday with
"facility equipment only" to be sold.
That's all I know for sure. I've heard that
everything
will
be on the block, from horse stalls to cocktail napkins. A bonanza for souvenir
seekers and farm owners alike.
If you want to buy, GAG instructs you to register
in advance on their website.
Have a good time, if you can hold back your
tears.
But we must also nourish the living, and CARMA
(California Retirement Management Account) is trying to do just that for
retired racehorses with a charity poker tournament and silent auction at
Del Mar.
The fund-raiser will be held at the Del Mar
Hilton, across from the racetrack, starting at 6:30 p.m. today (Thursday).
The CARMA announcement puts it this way: "Join us for an evening of action,
food, and fun benefiting California's retired racehorses."
Offerings in the silent auction include seasons
to Singletary, Swiss Yodeler, Bertrando,
Cat Dreams, Unusual Heat, Atticus,
Event
of the Year, Tannersmyman, Onebadshark,
Redattore
(Brz), Taste of Paradise, and Candy Ride.
CARMA would like you to register by clicking
here or by calling (626) 574-6618. I don't know whether registering
is required, but I'll bet that if you show up with money to offer, they'll
take it.
|
|
AUGUST 19, 2008
The harrowing episode of the endangered Thoroughbred
mares and stallions in Arizona is drawing to a close. Stallions and mares
have been rescued, and now a number of mares are safe at Tranquility Farm
but in need of new homes.
Tranquility president Priscilla Clark, who
did a major part of the rescue work, has finally been able to put together
a list of the mares, and she deeply hopes that each of them will find a
home. Click here for the list.
She's done her part--more than her
part--and now it's up to you.
|
|
AUGUST 16, 2008
There's great news about the efforts of Tranquility
Farm's Priscilla Clark to save those horses in Arizona that were threatened
with slaughter. See The Newsdesk page for full
details. In addition, there's a good story on The
Blood-Horse website.
|
|
AUGUST 15, 2008
The discussion--maybe even controversy--over
the performance of American Thoroughbred breeders appears to have died
away, but I was reminded of it when I read a Daily Racing Form story
a few days ago.
European horses, the story reported, swept
the top three places in this year's Arlington Million and did the same
in the companion feature at Arlington Park, the Secretariat Stakes. Both
are Grade 1 races.
How can those European horses be so much better
than American ones?
A few hours later, I received an e-mail that
triggered an association--could the problems of American breeding be related
to the influence of the popular computerized nicking analyses that have
become so prominent over the past several decades? As far as I can determine,
nicking is nowhere nearly as significant on other continents, and probably
not significant at all.
(If I'm wrong about that, please advise me
and I'll try to decide whether I'm pleased that they, too, have been corrupted.)
That e-mail came from a gentleman who identified
himself as a pedigree and bloodstock consultant for a major Kentucky breeding
farm. He had just read my article on the false
promise of nicking, and it inspired him to send the following:
I am contacting you, because
I am absolutely astonished how the computerized "nick" has overtaken the
industry, to the point of no other analysis takes place other than getting
the sire's yearling average. We had to put it on our website in order to
sell seasons!
It is now even printed next
to stakes winners in the Thoroughbred Daily News! As you noted in
an old article, "if it is computerized it must be accurate." I am amazed
at how I explain to a breeder for 30 minutes about how genetically all
genes are NOT coming from 4-generations on the sire line, and yet they
still want the A, B, C letter grade--some are almost obsessed with getting
an A++++.
What can be done to create a
revolution against this poor statistic. I was hoping that we could find
a geneticist and a statistician that can help in co-writing an article
that can debunk this stuff before it does any more harm. What did it take,
and how long did it take, before people figured out that using leaches
to suck your blood did not cure and/or bring down a fever?
Do you have any ideas?
I had to disappoint him with this response:
You probably noted that I had
some help from geneticists with my nicking article.
Regarding the eradication of
the nicking kudzu, I've done all I can do and have no energy to expend
on pursuing it further. I willingly leave the fight for truth and integrity
to others, of which I fear there are few.
If I can do anything that requires
little or no effort and no imagination at all, I'm ready for that.
I have had dispiriting results
from my efforts to wage that fight. I've even had the experience of urging
someone to read my nicking-debunking article before paying hundreds of
dollars to buy a nicking analysis and having them respond that they'd read
my article but thought they'd go ahead and buy the analysis anyway so they
would have all available information before making an important mating
decision.
But "information" that misleads
is destructive, not informative. I believe the proper term would not be
"information" but "pseudo-information."
Good luck, and let me know if you find any reason for hope.
I don't expect him to provide me with that
reason for hope. It's too late. The breeding industry has been, I think,
irrevocably corrupted.
I've long been convinced that Jack Werk, who
started the whole thing, was the greatest marketer in Thoroughbred history.
Now, I fear, he may turn out to be the most influential as well.
|
|
AUGUST 10, 2008
It's a hard slog untangling that mess in Arizona.
Here's Priscilla Clark's most recent report:
"The support and generosity of the Thoroughbred
community for the recovery of the Warren mares has been absolutely tremendous,
and Tranquility Farm has been in negotiations all week to purchase all
of the mares and stallions at the Arizona feedlot.
"It would appear that the owner of the feedlot,
David Quinn, is convinced that the value of this lot of mares and stallions
is roughly double what they would bring at auction, even though he still
has not provided to Tranquility Farm so much as a listing of the mares'
names. We regret that we cannot provide this to our adopters at this time.
"Negotiations will begin again next week,
but it appears that the feedlot owner needs some time to arrive at a
more realistic price for horses. The feedlot is under close observation
in order to guarantee the security of the mares and stallions."
And she appended this note: "Priscilla Clark
of Tranquility Farm will be interviewed on HRTV on Sunday at 9:45 a.m.
(Pacific Time) regarding the rescue of the Warren mares and the slaughter
situation in California."
|
Read Don Engel's blog entries dated prior to July 2008
|
